Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
27 0x27b7…69b5 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$93 (-15%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$91
crypto 15% $0
politics 7% −$3
world 6% −$2
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 0% -26.3%
all 12 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 0% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -23.6%
10% -22.1% 0% -30.9%
15% -29.6% 0% -37.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage120d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $299 −$90 -30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 26? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $34 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $54 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $43 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $50 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $50 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $109 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $109 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 100d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $20 114d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $20 114d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $16 114d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $8 114d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $24 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $3 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $2 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $8 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $7 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $2 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $7 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records