Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x27b6…a06d other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 33L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1
world 34% +$2
politics 14% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.1%
all 51 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage378d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $22 $0 -1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +27%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jun 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 13 $22 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $18 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $15 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $20 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records