Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b6…e8ba sports 610 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-0%) realized −$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate75%459W / 151L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$433
14 days−$447
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$6
crypto 9% +$3
sports 4% −$392
politics 3% +$7
tech 3% +$7
culture 2% +$2
weather 1% +$4
economics 0% +$1
world 0% +$3
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -6.0% -15.0% 39% 26% -21.1%
≤30d 171 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 25% -20.0%
≤90d 301 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 17% -10.9%
all 610 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses459 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)610 / 610
History coverage186d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 610 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $49 −$6 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $49 −$2 -5%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$3 -7%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 −$9 -17%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $50 −$19 -37%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$10 -21%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $47 −$29 -61%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $19 −$11 -55%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $19 +$12 +63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 −$20 -69%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 −$7 -46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -19%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $30 −$12 -40%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$6 -61%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -70%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -61%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $30 −$2 -7%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 80¢ $42 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $46 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 52¢ $45 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 53¢ $46 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 40¢ $45 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $49 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $49 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 54¢ $48 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 90¢ $49 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $9 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $12 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $5 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $32 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $5 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL United States 18¢ $30 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL United States 25¢ $2 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 28¢ $0 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 28¢ $16 2h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 28¢ $34 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $49 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $40 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1606 history records