Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b4…22b1 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$7
politics 22% −$2
other 21% −$5
sports 13% −$6
economics 3% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 27 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 15% -8.8%
≤90d 81 +1.7% -8.0% 30% 5% -9.4%
all 85 -0.9% -10.4% 28% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage524d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $58 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $78 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $19 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $9 +$5 +62%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $8 −$1 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $38 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $41 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.72 · official $12.90 (match) · 352 history records