trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 01 | $200 | +$70 | +35% |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | May 21 | $26 | +$7 | +28% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 19 | $41 | −$40 | -98% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 11 | $100 | +$32 | +32% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 8? | May 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | May 06 | $100 | +$67 | +67% |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | May 06 | $100 | +$170 | +170% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | Jan 14 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 02 | $25 | +$6 | +24% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 14 | $5 | −$1 | -24% |
| Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31? | Nov 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Nov 10 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 10 | $10 | +$21 | +215% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Nov 10 | $10 | −$9 | -89% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 06 | $100 | +$13 | +13% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 29 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jun 25 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 75% | 75% | +3.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 75% | 75% | +33.8% |
| all | 18 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 61% | 56% | +10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 56% | +10.0% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 39% | -0.5% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 17% | -10.1% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 17% | -18.9% |