Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b3…01bb crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,032 (+2%) realized +$398 · open +$1,634
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,456per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$54,685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$1,575
other 17% +$219
finance 6% +$131
world 2% +$45
tech 2% +$7
economics 1% −$266
politics 0% −$17
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 91% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 12% -9.2%
10% -19.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$41 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$54,685
Realized+$398
Unrealized+$1,634
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)33 / 60
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,456
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $14,148 $14,840 +$692 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $3,790 $3,915 +$125 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $3,486 $3,597 +$111 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,231 $3,277 +$46 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $3,000 $3,142 +$142 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,847 $2,878 +$31 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,730 $2,760 +$30 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,372 $2,452 +$80 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $2,325 $2,421 +$96 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,251 $2,284 +$33 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,880 $1,910 +$30 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,522 $1,588 +$66 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,540 +$40 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,479 $1,499 +$20 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $1,365 $1,458 +$93 (+7%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $1,000 $1,069 +$69 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,029 +$29 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $972 $1,000 +$29 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $672 $699 +$27 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $478 $485 +$6 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $295 $300 +$4 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No 94¢ 96¢ $196 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $320 $148 −$172 (-54%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December? No 96¢ 94¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $295 +$5 +2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $188 −$69 -37%
Will Tesla reach $518 in April? May 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? May 01 $555 +$2 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $450 −$24 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 21 $1,500 +$20 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 17 $500 +$12 +2%
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Apr 01 $184 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $200 +$5 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $249 +$8 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 01 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 01 $518 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $2,000 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $2,000 +$17 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 01 $4,010 +$15 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? Apr 01 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 01 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $400 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,300 +$5 +0%
Will Google reach $375 in March? Apr 01 $750 +$5 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 01 $2,000 +$8 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 23? Mar 26 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 26 $80 +$12 +14%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $1,000 +$13 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 23 $40 +$8 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 23 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 22 $150 −$30 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23? Mar 22 $45 −$11 -24%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 20 $200 +$74 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $141 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $540 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $63 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,245 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $133 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $218 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $193 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $320 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 98¢ $28 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,164 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,158 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,142 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,685.12 · official $54,685.59 (match) · 340 history records