Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b3…89c7 world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 59L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$7
sports 19% +$12
other 17% −$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.4% 20% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 72 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 84 -2.1% -11.4% 30% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage485d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $70 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $137 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $89 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $71 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $67 −$3 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $33 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $68 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 -5%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 -8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $38 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $177 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records