Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27b1…3813 sports 1548 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$817 (+2%) realized +$822 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%783W / 718L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$693
14 days+$789
30 days+$1,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,293
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 +10.3% -0.2% 58% 54% +0.4%
≤30d 754 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 46% -4.6%
≤90d 1501 +5.4% -4.6% 52% 44% -6.4%
all 1501 +5.4% -4.6% 52% 44% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 44% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 42% -15.4%
15% -22.1% 38% -23.5%
20% -29.7% 34% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized+$822
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses783 / 718
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1501 / 1548
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 1501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jones 63¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 57¢ $24 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Borges 51¢ 54¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 64¢ 44¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Svajda 50¢ 53¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 48¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Blinkova (-1.5) vs Preston (+1.5) Preston 53¢ 56¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Set Handicap: Zandschulp (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) Wendelken 55¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 56¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 25¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Terence Atmane vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 56¢ 41¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Frech (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Set 2 Winner: Frech vs Zhang Jun 15 $13 +$13 +101%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $28 +$22 +79%
Set 2 Winner: Schoenhaus vs Tien Jun 15 $39 +$11 +28%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $24 −$8 -32%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $32 +$18 +56%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $24 +$26 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $29 +$21 +72%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $24 +$26 +104%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $23 +$27 +117%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $26 +$24 +96%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $26 +$24 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $25 +$25 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $22 +$28 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 +$22 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 14 $14 +$8 +60%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Landaluce vs Gentzsch Jun 14 $37 +$13 +35%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $27 −$26 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Sonmez vs Klugman Jun 14 $40 +$10 +27%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $30 +$20 +64%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 14 $36 +$14 +39%
Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaur Jun 14 $37 +$13 +34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $27 −$2 -7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Set Handicap: Bolt (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $28 −$3 -11%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$6 -21%
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Bolt (+1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Anastasia Potapova vs. Zeynep Sonmez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$4 -15%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5) Jun 14 $28 −$3 -11%
Robin Montgomery vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 −$6 -21%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $20 +$30 +156%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $26 +$24 +96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $32 +$18 +56%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $23 +$27 +117%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $25 +$25 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 56¢ $28 5h
Terence Atmane vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 56¢ $4 5h
Set Handicap: Blinkova (-1.5) vs Preston (+1.5) BUY Preston 53¢ $8 5h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Svajda 50¢ $18 6h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 64¢ $32 6h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 28¢ $2 6h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Schoenhaus 41¢ $13 6h
Set Handicap: Zandschulp (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) BUY Wendelken 55¢ $9 6h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $3 7h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) BUY Borges 51¢ $26 7h
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 63¢ $32 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.48 · official $403.82 (match) · 3500 history records