trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $432,400 | $434,700 | +$2,300 (+1%) |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $14,061 | $0 | −$14,061 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jun 03 | $34,500 | +$15,500 | +45% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jun 03 | $237,424 | +$170,032 | +72% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 16 | $14,061 | −$14,061 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +58.3% | +43.2% | 100% | 100% | +52.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +58.3% | +43.2% | 100% | 100% | +52.2% |
| all | 3 | +5.5% | -4.5% | 67% | 67% | +44.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -4.5% | 67% | +44.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -13.7% | 67% | +30.9% |
| 15% | -22.0% | 67% | +18.2% |
| 20% | -29.7% | 33% | +6.6% |