trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 24 | +43.8% | +30.1% | 25% | 25% | +139.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +30.1% | 25% | +139.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +17.7% | 25% | +116.9% |
| 15% | +6.3% | 25% | +96.0% |
| 20% | -4.1% | 25% | +76.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes | 26¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-76%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele | Jun 28 | $134 | −$134 | -100% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi | Jun 28 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Jun 28 | $907 | −$907 | -100% |
| [Single Market] Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democrati | Jun 28 | $0 | −$261 | -696059% |
| [Single Market] Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic preside | Jun 28 | $8 | −$2,652 | -32014% |
| [Single Market] Will Dean Phillips win the U.S. Democratic presidentia | Jun 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Sep 10 | $45,630 | −$45,570 | -100% |
| Xi Jinping out before October? | Aug 20 | $4,650 | −$4,648 | -100% |
| Will Dean Phillips win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Nov 16 | $2,594 | −$2,594 | -100% |
| Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Nov 16 | $2,221 | −$2,221 | -100% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Nov 16 | $41,535 | −$38,365 | -92% |
| Kamala president by Friday? | Aug 24 | $216 | −$216 | -100% |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Aug 24 | $44,962 | +$72,868 | +162% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Aug 24 | $17,134 | +$141,126 | +824% |
| Trump and Biden both win nomination? | Aug 24 | $23,155 | +$154,375 | +667% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Aug 06 | $24,197 | +$165,061 | +682% |
| Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Aug 03 | $19,956 | −$5,504 | -28% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Jul 26 | $11,726 | −$13,968 | -119% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomina | Jul 25 | $638 | +$879 | +138% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Jul 20 | $190 | +$1,830 | +963% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Apr 10 | $6,012 | −$6,897 | -115% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec | Mar 29 | $140 | −$684 | -489% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio | Mar 29 | $4 | −$24 | -573% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi | Mar 26 | $240 | −$860 | -358% |