Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27ae…bf32 politics 19 markets active 290d ago coverage 546d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 546d only
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$411,036 (+168%) realized +$411,037 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$12,905per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,040
7 days−$4,040
14 days−$4,040
30 days−$4,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% +$467,028
other 21% −$50,219
world 1% −$2,221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 24 +43.8% +30.1% 25% 25% +139.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.1% 25% +139.9%
10% ← realistic here +17.7% 25% +116.9%
15% +6.3% 25% +96.0%
20% -4.1% 25% +76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -356% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +164% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$19,029) neutral
Persistence
early +187% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
150.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89,357 vs −$6,977 · ×12.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$411,037
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 19
History coverage546d ⚠
Avg bet$12,905
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Jun 28 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Jun 28 $907 −$907 -100%
[Single Market] Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the U.S. 2024 Democrati Jun 28 $0 −$261 -696059%
[Single Market] Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. 2024 Democratic preside Jun 28 $8 −$2,652 -32014%
[Single Market] Will Dean Phillips win the U.S. Democratic presidentia Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Sep 10 $45,630 −$45,570 -100%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 20 $4,650 −$4,648 -100%
Will Dean Phillips win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Nov 16 $2,594 −$2,594 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Nov 16 $2,221 −$2,221 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Nov 16 $41,535 −$38,365 -92%
Kamala president by Friday? Aug 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Aug 24 $44,962 +$72,868 +162%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 24 $17,134 +$141,126 +824%
Trump and Biden both win nomination? Aug 24 $23,155 +$154,375 +667%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 06 $24,197 +$165,061 +682%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 03 $19,956 −$5,504 -28%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 26 $11,726 −$13,968 -119%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomina Jul 25 $638 +$879 +138%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 20 $190 +$1,830 +963%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $6,012 −$6,897 -115%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Mar 29 $140 −$684 -489%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Mar 29 $4 −$24 -573%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Mar 26 $240 −$860 -358%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $842 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $2 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $64 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $9 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $300 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $6 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $7 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $13 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $158 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $0 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $2 290d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $2 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $152 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $140 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $9 291d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $170 291d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 3500 history records