Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27a2…d196 other 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+1%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 57L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 56% −$14
politics 21% −$14
other 17% −$9
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$2
world 1% $0
sports 1% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.1% +1.4% 17% 17% -7.4%
≤30d 20 -1.5% -10.8% 10% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 65 +9.8% -0.7% 23% 18% -8.0%
all 75 +10.2% -0.3% 24% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 17% -9.0%
10% -9.9% 17% -17.7%
15% -18.6% 17% -25.7%
20% -26.6% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×8.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage580d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $48 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $9 +$6 +73%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $168 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $212 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $412 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $212 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $436 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $203 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $207 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $208 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $227 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 18m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $9 26h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $127 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 22¢ $2 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.76 · official $191.76 (match) · 286 history records