Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27a0…cecd crypto 144 markets active 22h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$228 (+11%) realized +$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%55W / 89L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$55
weather 47% +$203
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -21.8% -29.3% 31% 23% -28.7%
≤30d 140 -10.9% -19.4% 37% 29% -25.7%
≤90d 144 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 31% -25.2%
all 144 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 31% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 31% -25.2%
10% -26.8% 26% -32.3%
15% -33.9% 20% -38.9%
20% -40.3% 15% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses55 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 −$12 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $71 +$48 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$86 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $29 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $95 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records