Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x279d…5e89 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,729 (+9%) realized +$1,723 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$349est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,191
7 days+$1,296
14 days+$1,305
30 days+$1,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,435
other 31% +$68
world 1% −$55
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -13.2% -21.4% 40% 23% +0.7%
≤30d 52 +34.8% +22.0% 40% 25% -2.1%
≤90d 52 +34.8% +22.0% 40% 25% -2.1%
all 52 +34.8% +22.0% 40% 25% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 25% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 19% -11.4%
15% -0.4% 17% -20.0%
20% -10.1% 15% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +91% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$31 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1,723
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$349
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage18d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 2¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $191 −$19 -10%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,523 −$32 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $599 −$11 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,245 +$384 +31%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 +$209 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,124 −$155 -14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $208 −$25 -12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,865 +$58 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $344 −$11 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 −$38 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $819 +$817 +100%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $204 +$9 +4%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $35 +$3 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $301 +$31 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$3 -24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 −$79 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $244 +$30 +12%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $387 −$86 -22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,066 +$88 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $90 +$108 +120%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $301 −$101 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $228 +$209 +92%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $323 −$23 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $377 −$35 -9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $113 +$9 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $90 −$2 -3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $875 −$3 -0%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,578 +$50 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $646 −$35 -6%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $447 −$75 -17%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $205 +$44 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $451 +$28 +6%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $104 +$186 +179%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $150 +$4 +2%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $160 −$55 -34%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $83 −$3 -4%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5 May 31 $29 +$22 +74%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $33 +$101 +307%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $354 −$68 -19%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $93 +$11 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $223 −$12 -5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$5 -11%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $98 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 17¢ $10 0m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 17¢ $0 0m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $10 0m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $11 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 4¢ $1 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 4¢ $4 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 4¢ $5 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 6¢ $10 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 3m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 3m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 3m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $21 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $0 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $45 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $105 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $189 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $2 10m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 11m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 56¢ $508 44m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 56¢ $1 45m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 55¢ $500 45m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $71 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $14 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $1 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $3 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $29 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $2 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $1 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $365 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $10 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.03 · official $745.07 · 631 history records