Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x279c…ff33 politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$5
world 7% $0
economics 2% $0
other 1% −$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage245d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -39%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 9h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 10h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 13h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 14h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 15h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 17h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 18h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 20h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 21h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 22h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 22h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 23h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 25h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 25h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 35h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 37h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 39h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 43h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 44h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 46h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 47h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.29 · official $178.29 (match) · 47 history records