Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x279c…0ef4 sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-9%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%27W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$15
other 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 41% -19.0%
≤30d 59 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 41% -19.0%
≤90d 59 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 41% -19.0%
all 59 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 41% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 41% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 39% -26.7%
15% -29.5% 29% -33.8%
20% -36.4% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses27 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)59 / 70
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +154%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $7 +$8 +110%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 +$4 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $9 +$2 +25%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
ITF Martos: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs John Echeverria Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
ITF Guimaraes: Katherine Sebov vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 2m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 19¢ $1 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1 2d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 96¢ $1 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 47¢ $1 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY No 72¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 3d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.77 · official $16.83 (match) · 175 history records