Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x279c…2b82 world 63 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3415 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$6,969 (+36%) realized +$6,323 · open +$646
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +181% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +116% what you keep after slip
Net edge+116%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day3415.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$13,707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$12,033
other 31% +$364
tech 1% +$872
finance 0% −$32
politics 0% −$4
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3415 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+154.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +279.7% +243.5% 77% 77% +78.0%
≤30d 37 +181.2% +154.4% 70% 65% +62.7%
≤90d 37 +181.2% +154.4% 70% 65% +62.7%
all 37 +181.2% +154.4% 70% 65% +62.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3415.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +154.4% 65% +62.7%
10% ← realistic here +130.0% 62% +47.1%
15% +107.8% 57% +32.9%
20% +87.4% 51% +19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +181% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$614) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +84% → late +273% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
29.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$517 vs −$78 · ×6.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.68 per $1 lost it wins $15.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13,707
Realized+$6,323
Unrealized+$646
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions61
Markets (closed)37 / 63
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$304
Trades / day3415.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $1,652 $1,956 +$305 (+18%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 12¢ 58¢ $301 $1,445 +$1,145 (+381%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,303 $1,386 +$83 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $832 $844 +$12 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 26¢ 19¢ $1,060 $782 −$279 (-26%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? Yes 62¢ 85¢ $497 $684 +$187 (+38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $512 $592 +$80 (+16%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 42¢ 47¢ $410 $462 +$52 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $456 $459 +$3 (+1%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $397 $400 +$4 (+1%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 55¢ $408 $390 −$18 (-4%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes 90¢ 56¢ $578 $360 −$218 (-38%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $358 $357 −$1 (-0%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $348 $344 −$4 (-1%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 83¢ 92¢ $298 $329 +$32 (+11%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $463 $290 −$173 (-37%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $210 $211 +$1 (+1%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $191 $206 +$15 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 50¢ $196 $180 −$17 (-8%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 33¢ 58¢ $100 $179 +$79 (+78%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by November 30, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $186 $174 −$12 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 55¢ $163 $166 +$3 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 94¢ $134 $164 +$29 (+22%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $279 $155 −$125 (-45%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$18 -89%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $12 +$7 +60%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2 +$904 +47990%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $11 +$13 +117%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $119 +$111 +93%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $553 +$60 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 22 $361 +$3,032 +839%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $2,140 +$1,319 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $271 +$271 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $680 +$281 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $57 +$239 +419%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $779 +$675 +87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,154 −$330 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $409 +$1,035 +253%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $591 +$187 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $890 −$55 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $141 +$194 +138%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $267 −$135 -50%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $87 +$962 +1108%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $44 +$380 +873%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $102 +$197 +194%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $25 −$18 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $202 +$144 +71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $614 −$150 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $437 +$788 +180%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1,414 +$447 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,157 +$1,637 +142%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $788 +$61 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $787 +$301 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $51 −$47 -92%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $25 −$22 -89%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $166 +$102 +62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $211 +$17 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $17 +$68 +402%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 10d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL No 58¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 10d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL No 54¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $10 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $7 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $11 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $7 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $16 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $5 10d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $4 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $13 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,707.33 · official $13,721.30 (match) · 3500 history records