Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2798…eb87 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$107 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$21
politics 37% −$5
sports 18% +$25
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -4.2% -13.4% 32% 27% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 27% -4.5%
10% -21.6% 27% -13.6%
15% -29.2% 27% -22.0%
20% -36.2% 23% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$13 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$944
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage633d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $577 $577 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $362 $362 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ $45 $5 −$40 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $900 −$1 -0%
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Sep 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 17 $11 +$11 +100%
Liberty vs. Mercury Sep 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Mar 19 $127 +$97 +76%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Jan 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Penn State Jan 10 $108 +$100 +92%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -50%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? Oct 07 $61 +$30 +50%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $19 +$31 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $362 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $577 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $899 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $46 4h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $900 4h
Giants vs. Diamondbacks BUY Diamondbacks 51¢ $21 282d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Blue Jays 50¢ $11 283d
Liberty vs. Mercury BUY Liberty 56¢ $6 285d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 345d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 368d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 403d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 403d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 403d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 406d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 407d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 407d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 407d
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 408d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 408d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 414d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $6 414d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 422d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 422d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 95¢ $5 425d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 95¢ $5 427d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 57¢ $127 529d
Canucks vs. Hurricanes BUY Canucks 43¢ $101 532d
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes $1 533d
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes $1 533d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.73 · official $943.73 (match) · 44 history records