Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2795…b184 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%53W / 10L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$15
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$17
world 11% +$2
sports 2% +$3
politics 0% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 18 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 6% -7.8%
≤90d 26 +2.4% -7.4% 92% 4% -7.7%
all 63 -3.7% -12.9% 84% 19% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 19% -8.1%
10% -21.2% 11% -16.9%
15% -28.8% 3% -24.9%
20% -35.8% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses53 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage110d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $118 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $48 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 01 $29 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? Apr 05 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Oil" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 20 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $80 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $78 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $70 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $125 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $24 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $24 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $24 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $49 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $23 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records