Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2792…c4f6 sports 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,553 (+2%) realized +$1,737 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%179W / 185L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$986est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$855
7 days+$818
14 days+$888
30 days−$1,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +71.1%
≤30d 352 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 364 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% -9.1%
all 364 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 49% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 43% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 36% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$153 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$8,086
Realized+$1,737
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses179 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$986
Open positions8
Markets (closed)364 / 372
History coverage30d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 34¢ 50¢ $945 $1,376 +$431 (+46%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 22¢ 20¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ 18¢ $124 $62 −$62 (-50%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 51¢ 50¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Under 66¢ 78¢ $40 $46 +$7 (+17%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ 45¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-12%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Over 46¢ 35¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 1¢ $114 $2 −$112 (-98%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $100 −$49 -49%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $19 +$8 +40%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1,003 −$98 -10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $50 +$34 +69%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $63 −$61 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $139 −$135 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$357 +357%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $9 −$8 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $156 +$953 +611%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $50 +$12 +23%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $50 +$71 +141%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $5 −$4 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $100 +$88 +88%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $100 +$56 +56%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 02 $47 +$37 +77%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $25 +$15 +61%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $76 −$11 -14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $191 +$137 +72%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 31 $7 −$7 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $109 +$61 +56%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 31 $100 −$99 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 31 $200 −$196 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $3 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $100 −$98 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $204 +$113 +56%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 May 31 $100 +$87 +87%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $1,011 −$995 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 May 31 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 31 $133 +$76 +57%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) May 31 $100 −$98 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $329 −$321 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 31 $860 +$1,266 +147%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 31 $100 −$99 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $224 +$251 +112%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $849 +$777 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $2 +$1 +48%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $8 +$5 +55%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $42 +$10 +23%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $48 +$21 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 46¢ $14 0m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $37 14m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 22¢ $101 14m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $1 27m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 66¢ $40 42m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $126 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 10¢ $50 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $116 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 71¢ $19 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 81¢ $903 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 41¢ $50 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 16¢ $50 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $50 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $50 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 17¢ $50 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 20¢ $63 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $301 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $663 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $50 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $25 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $50 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 13¢ $13 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $50 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $50 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $50 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 11¢ $9 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $50 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 3¢ $50 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $34 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,085.67 · official $8,085.67 (match) · 971 history records