Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2791…e483 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$816 (-18%) realized −$798 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%40W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$544
7 days−$443
14 days−$763
30 days−$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$821
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 48% -19.8%
≤30d 83 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 47% -25.5%
≤90d 83 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 47% -25.5%
all 87 -12.3% -20.6% 46% 45% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 45% -26.1%
10% -28.2% 34% -33.2%
15% -35.1% 23% -39.7%
20% -41.5% 21% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$43 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$798
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses40 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage263d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down on June 27? Up 43¢ 34¢ $88 $69 −$18 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$105 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$6 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET Jun 26 $374 +$140 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$70 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $249 +$55 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$21 -91%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $108 +$45 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$156 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$15 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $110 −$107 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$76 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$12 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $39 +$35 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $143 +$49 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $74 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$8 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $43 −$10 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$9 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$27 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$6 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$96 +396%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$11 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 43¢ $91 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $235 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $246 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 64¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $29 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $34 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $94 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.49 · official $69.49 (match) · 280 history records