Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2790…0a2c politics 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$18
other 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 90 -5.6% -14.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage694d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Everton finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu Feb 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Nov 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Roaring Kitty charged in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Someone else announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Bird flu pandemic in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dynamo Kyiv win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Packers win the NFC North? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Orlando City win the MLS Cup? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jeff Clark for Attorney General? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump appoint Nicole Shanahan for White House Press Secretary? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $51 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 22d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 41d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 41d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 68d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 68d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 76d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 76d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 89d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $52 98d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $52 98d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 100¢ $52 109d
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 100¢ $52 109d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 110d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 111d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 114d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 115d
Will Everton finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu SELL No 100¢ $50 136d
Will Everton finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu BUY No 100¢ $50 148d
Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 210d
Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 251d
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? SELL No 98¢ $0 550d
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? BUY No 98¢ $0 550d
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL No 80¢ $1 550d
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? BUY No 81¢ $1 550d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records