Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x278a…65f5
crypto · 525 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$554 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$728 · open +$174
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$204
Realized−$728
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses240 / 284
Open positions1
Markets (closed)524 / 525
History coverage13d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day106.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 524 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$565
7 days−$576
14 days−$728
30 days−$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 14¢ 100¢ $30 $204 +$174 (+587%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$29 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $82 +$32 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$16 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$39 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $73 −$22 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$45 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $113 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $82 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$40 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$49 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$14 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$554
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 -8.1% -16.8% 46% 40% -15.2%
≤30d 524 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 41% -14.4%
≤90d 524 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 41% -14.4%
all 524 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 41% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 41% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 37% -22.5%
15% -32.8% 30% -30.0%
20% -39.4% 24% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.02 · official $11.28 · 3500 history records