Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

27 0x2782…64b5 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$17 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-46.7%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-4.3%
≤30d	2	-46.7%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-4.3%
≤90d	2	-46.7%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-4.3%
all	2	-46.7%	-51.8%	50%	0%	-4.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.8%	0%	-4.3%
10%	-56.4%	0%	-13.4%
15%	-60.6%	0%	-21.8%
20%	-64.5%	0%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -47% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.56 per $1 lost it wins $9.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$17

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	80¢	80¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$156	+$10	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$105	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$156	15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.38 · official $99.38 (match) · 5 history records