Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x277f…753b sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$373 (-45%) realized −$372 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days−$89
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$437
other 33% +$71
tech 5% $0
politics 3% −$6
world 2% −$2
economics 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 3 -50.0% -54.8% 33% 33% -37.0%
≤90d 9 -36.1% -42.2% 56% 22% -61.4%
all 16 -38.9% -44.7% 56% 12% -57.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 12% -57.2%
10% -50.0% 6% -61.3%
15% -54.9% 6% -65.1%
20% -59.3% 0% -68.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$64 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$372
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage168d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $143 +$72 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $162 −$160 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $268 −$267 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 20 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 20 $11 $0 +4%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition Apr 20 $14 $0 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 20 $18 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? Jan 07 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $121 49m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $143 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $162 13d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $5 29d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 47¢ $5 43d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $268 57d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 85d
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition BUY Yes 99¢ $14 89d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY Yes 3¢ $3 100d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 106d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $9 110d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 125d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 130d
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 147d
Will Apple reach $360 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 154d
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 161d
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.63 · official $118.65 (match) · 26 history records