trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 25 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.1% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -17.8% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1,595 | $1,592 | −$3 (-0%) |
| Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $628 | $629 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | Jun 25 | $2,247 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | Jun 20 | $2,242 | +$4 | +0% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $2,238 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 17 | $2,226 | +$11 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $1,820 | +$2 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $404 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $2,222 | +$2 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 12 | $2,217 | +$4 | +0% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $2,213 | +$4 | +0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $2,204 | +$8 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 01 | $2,198 | +$7 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 23 | $2,186 | +$11 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 19 | $2,152 | +$15 | +1% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 8? | May 09 | $2,150 | +$2 | +0% |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | May 05 | $2,137 | +$13 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | May 02 | $2,090 | +$47 | +2% |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | Apr 17 | $2,088 | +$2 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 13 | $2,086 | +$2 | +0% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 09 | $2,080 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Apr 06 | $2,069 | +$10 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 19 | $2,063 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 15 | $2,061 | +$2 | +0% |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Mar 12 | $2,047 | +$14 | +1% |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? | Mar 08 | $2,042 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $1,983 | +$59 | +3% |