Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2779…239a sports 192 markets active 4h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,187 (-11%) realized −$22,181 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%77W / 223L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,100per market
Trades / day132.3pace
Fees−$1,046est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31,116
7 days−$33,552
14 days−$36,327
30 days−$23,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$21,395
sports 29% −$9,913
finance 5% −$417
other 4% −$854
politics 3% −$2,508
crypto 2% −$120
economics 0% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -67.6% -70.7% 7% 6% -75.2%
≤30d 300 -36.0% -42.1% 26% 19% -17.8%
≤90d 300 -36.0% -42.1% 26% 19% -17.8%
all 300 -36.0% -42.1% 26% 19% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 19% -17.8%
10% -47.6% 14% -25.6%
15% ← realistic here -52.7% 11% -32.8%
20% -57.3% 8% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$570) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$739 vs −$359 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$22,181
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses77 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,046
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 192
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$1,100
Trades / day132.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 18 $805 −$805 -100%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 18 $48 −$39 -81%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere Jun 18 $228 −$228 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $234 −$234 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs M Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Istanbul: Katherine Sebov vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 18 $384 −$384 -100%
Jiujiang: Dalila Spiteri vs Kyoka Okamura Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 18 $104 −$105 -101%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Katie Jun 18 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Paris FC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Moez Ech Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $20 −$14 -69%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 18 $416 −$1,768 -425%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw? Jun 18 $336 −$336 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 18 $1 −$50 -7881%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Santos: Joao Eduardo Schiessl vs Gustavo Albieri Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will a new MAI model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Istanbul: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Francesca Jones Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $168 −$168 -100%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu Jun 18 $0 +$79 +28236%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 18 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Jun 18 $520 −$520 -100%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny Jun 18 $2,397 −$2,397 -100%
Wuxi: Tung-Lin Wu vs James McCabe Jun 18 $452 −$452 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Taylor Townsend vs Victori Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Wuxi: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Tianhui Zhang Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Kyoka Okamura Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $1 +$4 +507%
Will FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw? Jun 18 $367 −$367 -100%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor Jun 18 $366 −$366 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Angers SCO end in a draw? Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan Jun 18 $538 −$538 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Marta Jun 18 $145 −$145 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $100 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $57 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $14 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $42 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $3 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $27 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $4 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $7 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $0 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $0 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $40 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $40 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $148 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $100 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.35 · official $24.30 (match) · 3500 history records