Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2778…7c0b sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$648 (-9%) realized −$648 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$648
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤90d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
all 16 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 38% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -17.6%
10% -35.5% 38% -25.5%
15% -41.7% 38% -32.7%
20% -47.4% 38% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$545 vs −$392 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage108d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $8 −$1 -17%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 07 $420 +$420 +100%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $1,009 +$931 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Oilers Mar 06 $523 −$523 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $426 +$394 +92%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $288 −$288 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $370 +$315 +85%
Golden Knights vs. Sabres Mar 03 $185 −$185 -100%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 03 $352 −$352 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $428 −$428 -100%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $172 +$172 +100%
Blues vs. Wild Mar 01 $604 −$604 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 01 $243 −$243 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $960 +$1,040 +108%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $188 −$188 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $12 1h
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $7 35d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $1 35d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 48¢ $523 101d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 50¢ $420 101d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $1,009 102d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $352 103d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $75 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $213 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $75 103d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Golden Knights 44¢ $122 104d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Golden Knights 44¢ $63 104d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Predators 44¢ $352 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $428 104d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $370 105d
Blues vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $332 106d
Blues vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $272 106d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,108 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $44 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $164 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $36 106d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $125 107d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $48 107d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $738 108d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $222 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $188 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.02 · official $12.02 (match) · 33 history records