Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x2777…bbb3 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%46W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$9
crypto 10% $0
sports 2% −$10
tech 2% +$1
world 1% −$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 60 -0.7% -10.1% 77% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses46 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage560d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $57 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $32 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $62 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 04 $42 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $6,052 −$6 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 31 $34 −$6 -17%
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 21 $18 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 31d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $79 92d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 123d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 123d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $56 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $37 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $46 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $19 211d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $12 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 241d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $55 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 273d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $49 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 302d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $56 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 333d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $47 333d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $42 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.77 · official $86.77 (match) · 131 history records