Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2774…24f0 politics 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%58W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$7
other 26% −$4
crypto 10% −$7
sports 5% $0
world 4% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 83 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 156 -0.7% -10.1% 19% 0% -10.0%
all 209 -0.7% -10.1% 28% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses58 / 151
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)209 / 214
History coverage99d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 -1%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $50 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $71 −$2 -2%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 03 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 01 $39 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 2m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 34m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 50m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $7 3h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $7 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $5 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $6 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $6 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.93 · official $38.93 (match) · 1279 history records