Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2770…0b88 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-1%) realized −$105 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%40W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days−$114
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$86
crypto 20% +$5
tech 7% +$7
sports 3% $0
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 28 -2.9% -12.2% 96% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 41 -1.9% -11.2% 98% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -1.9% -11.2% 98% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$524) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$125 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses40 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage51d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $297 $294 −$3 (-1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $216 $212 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 97¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $114 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 19 $58 +$2 +3%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $345 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $140? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $225 +$3 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $189 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $250? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $130 −$125 -97%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 4? Jun 04 $280 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 3? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 3? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $351 +$2 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? May 30 $236 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $524 +$2 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 18 May 22 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $371 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $886 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $883 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $879 +$1 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 16 $870 +$3 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $351 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 12? May 14 $872 +$2 +0%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 11? May 12 $875 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 May 4-10? May 11 $336 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 4-10? May 11 $154 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 May 4-10? May 11 $380 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 April 27-May 3? May 04 $870 +$1 +0%
Will BNB reach $700 in April? May 01 $845 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $866 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $297 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $117 14h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 97¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 97¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 97¢ $11 3d
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $345 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $140? BUY No 100¢ $150 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $90 7d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $4 11d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $189 11d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $250? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $114 12d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $130 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $122 16d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $280 18d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $95 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $166 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.37 · official $747.83 · 106 history records