Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x276e…2822 weather 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$99 (+23%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$9
weather 22% +$88
other 18% $0
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.4% +25.2% 75% 38% +15.2%
≤30d 8 +38.4% +25.2% 75% 38% +15.2%
≤90d 8 +38.4% +25.2% 75% 38% +15.2%
all 8 +38.4% +25.2% 75% 38% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.2% 38% +15.2%
10% ← realistic here +13.2% 25% +4.2%
15% +2.3% 25% -5.9%
20% -7.8% 12% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×17.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.48 per $1 lost it wins $53.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$89 +312%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 78¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 67¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 42¢ $9 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $60 4h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $102 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $6 15h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL No 100¢ $155 15h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY No 96¢ $100 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.68 · official $79.68 (match) · 26 history records