Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x276e…e914
crypto · 1564 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,884 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,876 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized−$2,876
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1185 / 495
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1680 / 1564
History coverage16d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day148.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 1680 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,325
7 days−$4,350
14 days−$3,521
30 days−$2,876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) San Diego Padres 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
RS Berkane vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$1,525
weather 0% +$14
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 0¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -61.9% -65.6% 28% 23% -74.8%
≤30d 1680 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 67% -19.3%
≤90d 1680 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 67% -19.3%
all 1680 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 67% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover148.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 67% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 41% -27.1%
15% -33.5% 16% -34.1%
20% -40.0% 1% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.20 · official $80.55 (match) · 3500 history records