Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x276d…ea8f crypto 1131 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$213 (+0%) realized +$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate75%844W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$200
14 days+$321
30 days+$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$379
sports 38% −$165
weather 8% +$269
tech 1% +$104
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.5% -13.6% 64% 64% -0.7%
≤30d 181 -2.0% -11.3% 65% 62% -4.6%
≤90d 888 -2.0% -11.4% 72% 58% -10.0%
all 1128 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 57% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 57% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 35% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 19% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$47 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses844 / 284
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1128 / 1131
History coverage110d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1128 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $121 +$48 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $35 −$33 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $100 +$19 +18%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $252 +$74 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $85 +$15 +18%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND South Afri Jun 25 $50 +$23 +46%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 +$31 +62%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$28 -92%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$28 +27%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $101 +$74 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $120 +$16 +14%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$55 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 +$15 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$15 +142%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $50 −$40 -79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$18 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $40 +$18 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$26 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $61 −$58 -96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $115 +$85 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$22 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -94%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$20 -40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $175 +$80 +46%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +23%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $122 −$103 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$8 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 52¢ $35 6h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $121 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 84¢ $100 7h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a dra BUY 36¢ $51 13h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 86¢ $100 14h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $71 17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $306 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $100 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 31¢ $20 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $202 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 76¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 86¢ $18 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $68 28h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $82 29h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $70 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 31h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND South Afri BUY 68¢ $50 31h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 79¢ $20 39h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 79¢ $4 39h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $175 39h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 78¢ $79 39h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $101 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3039 history records