Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x276b…add4
sports · 410 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$797 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$795 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses193 / 212
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions3
Markets (closed)405 / 410
History coverage122d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 405 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$33
14 days−$495
30 days−$3,084
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 26¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 4? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 51¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 +$26 +510%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $32 +$18 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $18 +$14 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $10 +$18 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 05 $16 −$16 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$13 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $10 +$14 +140%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +129%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 31 $61 −$61 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5 May 31 $122 −$122 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $31 +$4 +13%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5 May 30 $20 +$20 +101%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $20 +$13 +65%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $102 −$28 -27%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $514 −$514 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $102 +$117 +115%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $130 +$77 +60%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5 May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 17? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5 May 25 $132 −$132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$920
crypto 10% +$527
other 3% −$209
world 1% −$145
politics 0% −$28
culture 0% −$20
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 10¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 40h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 40h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 35¢ $10 7d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $16 7d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 4? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 38¢ $9 9d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 41¢ $10 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 50¢ $35 13d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.8% +8.4% 40% 40% +22.0%
≤30d 90 -22.1% -29.5% 36% 36% -43.1%
≤90d 188 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 44% -12.9%
all 405 -2.6% -11.8% 48% 45% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -13.5%
10% -20.3% 44% -21.8%
15% -28.0% 40% -29.3%
20% -35.0% 37% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.43 · official $18.43 · 911 history records