Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x2769…89a3 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$194 (+10%) realized +$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$248
14 days+$248
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$319
crypto 30% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +36.6% +23.6% 80% 60% +22.9%
≤30d 5 +36.6% +23.6% 80% 60% +22.9%
≤90d 23 +29.8% +17.4% 48% 43% +1.2%
all 25 +29.4% +17.1% 48% 44% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 44% +2.2%
10% +5.9% 40% -7.6%
15% -4.4% 36% -16.5%
20% -13.7% 32% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage220d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $162 +$9 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 +$65 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $266 +$57 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$13 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 14 $70 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 14 $15 −$13 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $30 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 14 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $45 −$25 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 09 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 09 $32 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$16 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 09 $37 +$12 +31%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $487 −$8 -2%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $150 +$79 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $61 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $74 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 7¢ $7 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $266 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $56 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $41 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $39 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $20 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $15 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $18 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $24 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records