Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2769…21c8 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$31
politics 17% −$6
tech 5% −$1
economics 5% −$2
culture 3% −$1
sports 2% +$15
world 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 6% -9.6%
all 107 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 6% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage91d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $854 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,107 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $258 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $268 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $558 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $535 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $268 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $287 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $289 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $285 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $503 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $490 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $508 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $12 30m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $45 45h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $106 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 16d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 19d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $62 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.66 · official $174.66 (match) · 339 history records