Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2767…886a crypto 907 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,107 (-5%) realized −$1,008 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate68%619W / 285L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1,015
30 days−$1,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$132
sports 36% −$257
other 12% −$272
politics 4% −$381
world 1% −$139
tech 0% −$36
finance 0% +$13
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.0% -14.1% 73% 32% -14.1%
≤30d 370 -33.4% -39.8% 52% 11% -59.0%
≤90d 671 -10.7% -19.2% 71% 27% -32.5%
all 904 -3.8% -13.0% 68% 29% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 29% -14.9%
10% -21.3% 24% -23.0%
15% -28.9% 14% -30.5%
20% -35.9% 8% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,008
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses619 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)904 / 907
History coverage596d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 43h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 44h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.37 · official $3.37 (match) · 2114 history records