Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2765…bccd
sports · 4 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$19 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $10 −$8 -83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $35 +$10 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% +$23
crypto 39% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 5¢ $2 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 28¢ $10 1h
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $42 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $45 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $35 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +21.9%
≤30d 3 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +21.9%
≤90d 3 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +21.9%
all 3 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 67% +21.9%
10% -4.4% 67% +10.2%
15% -13.7% 33% -0.4%
20% -22.1% 33% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.36 · official $36.36 (match) · 7 history records