Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x2763…67ba world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$645 (+56%) realized +$645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +164% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +139% what you keep after slip
Net edge+139%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$644
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$15
other 8% +$663
politics 4% −$1
sports 3% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+139.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 +164.4% +139.2% 44% 22% +41.4%
≤90d 9 +164.4% +139.2% 44% 22% +41.4%
all 9 +164.4% +139.2% 44% 22% +41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +139.2% 22% +41.4%
10% +116.3% 22% +27.9%
15% +95.4% 11% +15.5%
20% +76.3% 11% +4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +164% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$11 · ×15.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.56 per $1 lost it wins $15.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $319 $0 +0%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 20 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $478 +$3 +1%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $68 −$2 -3%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $43 +$672 +1567%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 +$14 +33%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$9 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $319 43m
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 44m
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $319 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $317 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $314 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $163 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $164 2h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $63 21h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 22h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 22h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $44 22h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 26h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 26h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $66 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $68 4d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 9d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 9d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Moldova 5¢ $16 10d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Moldova 5¢ $16 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records