Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2763…8764 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$254 (-25%) realized −$233 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%24W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$20
14 days−$22
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$74
crypto 37% −$143
sports 11% −$19
world 8% −$21
weather 3% −$9
economics 2% +$9
politics 1% −$9
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 31% -20.9%
≤30d 30 -8.0% -16.8% 37% 37% -16.7%
≤90d 84 -42.3% -47.8% 29% 29% -43.4%
all 84 -42.3% -47.8% 29% 29% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 29% -43.4%
10% -52.8% 29% -48.8%
15% -57.3% 27% -53.8%
20% -61.5% 21% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)84 / 99
History coverage36d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+70%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 30¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +325%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$34 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? May 29 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? May 28 $5 +$13 +245%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C or higher on May 27? May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.46 · official $289.35 (match) · 166 history records