Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

27 0x2761…a7df sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$77 (+31%) realized +$77 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%12W / 3L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$57

30 days+$71

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+18.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	11	+32.3%	+19.7%	91%	91%	+23.7%
≤90d	15	+30.5%	+18.1%	80%	80%	+21.5%
all	15	+30.5%	+18.1%	80%	80%	+21.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.1%	80%	+21.5%
10%	+6.8%	67%	+9.9%
15%	-3.6%	47%	-0.7%
20%	-13.0%	33%	-10.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +45% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.3 per $1 lost it wins $7.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$77

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses12 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage34d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 08	$10	+$3	+31%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 08	$66	+$23	+35%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$20	+$8	+42%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu	Jun 07	$20	+$4	+21%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins	Jun 06	$10	+$6	+57%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova	Jun 06	$20	+$9	+46%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	Jun 06	$20	+$3	+14%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka	Jun 01	$2	−$2	-98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 26	$10	+$8	+79%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev	May 25	$10	+$3	+27%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	May 25	$5	+$5	+103%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka	May 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$5	+$6	+114%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$5	−$5	-99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina	May 16	$3	+$6	+188%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$35	1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	32¢	$13	11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	70¢	$20	11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	69¢	$20	11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	68¢	$69	11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	56¢	$25	11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	34¢	$21	11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins	BUY Kansas City Royals	63¢	$10	12d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu	BUY Yunchaokete Bu	82¢	$20	12d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova	BUY Alexandra Eala	68¢	$20	13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	13d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka	BUY Naomi Osaka	21¢	$2	17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	BUY Yes	87¢	$20	18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Knicks	55¢	$10	24d
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev	BUY Andrey Rublev	78¢	$10	24d
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka	BUY Raul Brancaccio	42¢	$5	31d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi	BUY No	48¢	$5	32d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	32d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina	BUY Elina Svitolina	34¢	$3	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.71 · official $34.71 (match) · 31 history records