Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x275e…3cf4 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-3%) realized −$166 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$100
other 5% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.0% -36.7% 40% 40% -13.5%
≤30d 15 -30.0% -36.7% 40% 40% -13.5%
≤90d 15 -30.0% -36.7% 40% 40% -13.5%
all 15 -30.0% -36.7% 40% 40% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 40% -13.5%
10% -42.8% 40% -21.8%
15% -48.3% 40% -29.3%
20% -53.4% 33% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$90 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $295 $384 +$89 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 +$126 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$88 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$147 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $303 −$226 -74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $272 +$176 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$164 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $77 −$76 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $391 −$113 -29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $75 −$73 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $299 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $328 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $202 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $290 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $202 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $260 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $73 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 14¢ $91 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 15¢ $103 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $101 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $448 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $272 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $77 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $87 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $191 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $191 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $200 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $75 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.81 · official $405.28 · 31 history records