Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x275c…6090 world 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,015 (+1%) realized +$421 · open +$594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate87%141W / 22L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$23,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days+$246
14 days+$413
30 days+$862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1,550
other 30% −$253
politics 23% +$42
finance 5% −$842
economics 3% +$103
tech 2% +$149
crypto 2% +$146
sports 1% +$60
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +2.1% -7.6% 87% 26% -5.6%
≤30d 107 +1.8% -7.9% 89% 30% -4.7%
≤90d 146 +1.1% -8.5% 88% 34% -4.0%
all 163 +2.1% -7.7% 87% 36% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 36% -8.9%
10% -16.5% 12% -17.7%
15% -24.6% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$270 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$23,468
Realized+$421
Unrealized+$594
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses141 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions159
Markets (closed)163 / 322
History coverage188d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 159 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $562 $605 +$43 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 84¢ 94¢ $533 $598 +$65 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $538 $560 +$22 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $562 $559 −$3 (-1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 82¢ 79¢ $560 $544 −$16 (-3%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $515 $534 +$19 (+4%)
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $512 $515 +$3 (+1%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $350 $370 +$20 (+6%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $310 $313 +$3 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $308 $310 +$2 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 97¢ 97¢ $297 $298 +$1 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $254 $286 +$32 (+12%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 82¢ 94¢ $231 $266 +$35 (+15%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $235 $264 +$29 (+12%)
Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks? No 80¢ 94¢ $222 $262 +$40 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $236 $260 +$24 (+10%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $231 $247 +$16 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $232 $245 +$13 (+5%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $225 $244 +$18 (+8%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $220 $243 +$23 (+10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $222 $240 +$18 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $234 $238 +$4 (+2%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 89¢ 91¢ $231 $237 +$6 (+3%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No 94¢ 96¢ $231 $236 +$5 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $235 $236 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $185 +$6 +3%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $107 +$5 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $36 +$3 +10%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 20 $298 +$14 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 20 $231 +$9 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $235 +$10 +4%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 20 $35 −$32 -91%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $167 −$109 -65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $189 −$88 -46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $231 +$15 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $68 −$46 -67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 17 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $28 +$2 +5%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $191 +$18 +10%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 17 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $483 +$26 +5%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $179 +$15 +8%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $232 +$25 +11%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $165 +$13 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $234 +$11 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $234 +$18 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $175 +$50 +29%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 15 $232 +$21 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $102 +$18 +17%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 15 $24 +$2 +7%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $234 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $389 +$81 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $74 +$5 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $198 +$46 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $35 +$5 +13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $310 +$69 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $112 +$6 +6%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +8%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 13 $169 +$7 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $169 +$21 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $81 +$13 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $561 +$49 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $402 +$26 +6%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 11 $561 +$21 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $117 +$5 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $122 −$94 -77%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 08 $69 +$5 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $237 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $191 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $112 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $57 5h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 5h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 5h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 5h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 5h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $41 7h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- SELL No 99¢ $5 8h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- SELL No 99¢ $77 8h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $107 12h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 16h
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $180 20h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 100¢ $312 21h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 21h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 25h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 25h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 81¢ $235 26h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $240 26h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $236 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $245 30h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 8¢ $3 32h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $27 38h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $85 39h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 28¢ $58 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,467.93 · official $23,476.96 (match) · 785 history records