Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

27 0x275b…4bb6 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$455 (-29%) realized −$438 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$387per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-44.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	-38.3%	-44.2%	50%	50%	-45.6%
all	2	-38.3%	-44.2%	50%	50%	-45.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.2%	50%	-45.6%
10%	-49.5%	50%	-50.8%
15%	-54.4%	0%	-55.6%
20%	-58.9%	0%	-59.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -38% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$131 vs −$590 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.22 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage

Net worth$359

Realized−$438

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage61d

Avg bet$387

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$326	$312	−$14 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner	Apr 30	$602	−$590	-98%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	Apr 26	$561	+$131	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$92	1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$242	1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	1h
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner	BUY Gen.G	31¢	$602	57d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$692	61d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	85¢	$552	61d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	19¢	$9	61d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.85 · official $358.85 (match) · 7 history records