Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x275a…4d33 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-8%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 39% -12.4%
≤30d 119 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 39% -12.4%
≤90d 171 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 36% -12.9%
all 171 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 36% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 22% -21.2%
15% -31.0% 14% -28.8%
20% -37.7% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$7 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$21 +306%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$6 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -58%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$3 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records