Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2759…62a9 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$640 (-20%) realized −$614 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$422
14 days−$563
30 days−$671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 37% −$454
crypto 6% −$180
world 5% −$45
tech 1% +$16
economics 0% −$10
sports 0% −$9
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -32.4% -38.8% 18% 12% -35.2%
≤30d 59 -46.1% -51.3% 22% 17% -36.2%
≤90d 59 -46.1% -51.3% 22% 17% -36.2%
all 59 -46.1% -51.3% 22% 17% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.3% 17% -36.2%
10% -55.9% 12% -42.3%
15% -60.2% 12% -47.9%
20% -64.1% 10% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$614
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)59 / 79
History coverage26d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 24¢ $28 $25 −$4 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $19 +$2 (+14%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-87%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 17 $387 −$54 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $156 −$126 -81%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $59 −$3 -6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $383 −$142 -37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $321 −$10 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 06 $1 $0 -10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 02 $47 +$9 +18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$6 +8%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 27, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $11 +$18 +168%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? May 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? May 29 $5 −$1 -12%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 27 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will another outcome occur in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runo May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $89 51m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 57m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $198 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $78 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Anthropic CEO arrested? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Anthropic acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.94 · official $195.87 (match) · 248 history records