Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2757…330c crypto 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$336 (-4%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%495W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$144
14 days−$217
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$292
other 13% −$52
finance 1% −$34
sports 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 443 -4.4% -13.5% 68% 30% -11.6%
≤30d 644 -5.9% -14.8% 69% 36% -12.5%
≤90d 731 -7.3% -16.2% 68% 37% -13.4%
all 731 -7.3% -16.2% 68% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 37% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 19% -21.7%
15% -31.5% 6% -29.3%
20% -38.2% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses495 / 236
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)731 / 731
History coverage64d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 731 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2419 history records