Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2755…fef0 sports 487 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,380 (-5%) realized −$5,380 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%258W / 229L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$315est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$795
7 days−$795
14 days−$795
30 days−$1,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$5,158
crypto 6% −$1,184
other 1% −$45
world 1% −$230
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -44.4% -49.7% 33% 33% -64.4%
≤30d 71 -25.8% -32.9% 48% 39% -27.6%
≤90d 205 -15.4% -23.4% 46% 36% -27.7%
all 487 -12.5% -20.8% 53% 36% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 36% -15.6%
10% -28.4% 22% -23.7%
15% -35.3% 13% -31.0%
20% -41.6% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$82 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,380
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses258 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$315
Open positions0
Markets (closed)487 / 487
History coverage150d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 487 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$32 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $155 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $406 −$400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 06 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$23 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$19 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$12 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $818 −$804 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $48 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1781 history records