Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2755…25ae
other · 154 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$74 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$104 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 145
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage96d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$32
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 10 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $311 −$3 -1%
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $94 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $445 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $45 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $400 −$2 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $44 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $243 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% −$39
politics 24% −$22
sports 21% −$13
crypto 7% −$11
culture 7% −$5
world 4% −$4
economics 4% −$2
tech 2% −$5
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 58m
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 7h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $60 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $61 24h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 24h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 39h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $11 39h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $11 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $52 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $53 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $62 3d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $63 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $41 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 76 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 147 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
all 153 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.95 · official $45.95 (match) · 689 history records