Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x2753…e28a weather 1136 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,180 (+7%) realized +$4,244 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate79%898W / 243L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$639
14 days+$861
30 days+$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$3,787
other 1% +$5
tech 0% −$12
culture 0% +$6
world 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +8.2% -2.1% 66% 44% +5.2%
≤30d 450 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 30% -5.2%
≤90d 865 +9.2% -1.2% 77% 31% -3.6%
all 1141 +9.0% -1.4% 79% 33% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 33% -3.7%
10% -10.8% 15% -12.9%
15% -19.4% 11% -21.3%
20% -27.3% 8% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$4,244
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses898 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1141 / 1136
History coverage158d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? No 32¢ 100¢ $20 $63 +$43 (+216%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Yes 74¢ 91¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? No 95¢ 92¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on January 30 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on January 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$9 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$15 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $251 +$41 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$31 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $271 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$20 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$80 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $81 +$31 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $95 2m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 91¢ $43 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $58 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 6m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 7m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 79¢ $80 32m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 28¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 82¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $203 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? SELL No 61¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.27 · official $129.88 (match) · 3371 history records